The Success Equation: Untangling Skill And Luck... May 2026

Activities where the best performer almost always wins. Examples include running races, swimming, and chess.

A simple heuristic to determine where an activity falls is to ask: The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck...

Activities where individual effort has no impact on the outcome. Examples include lotteries and roulette. Activities where the best performer almost always wins

Rather than seeing success as binary (either talent or chance), Mauboussin places activities on a spectrum: Mauboussin places activities on a spectrum: