Destined For War: Can America And China Escape ... May 2026

: China’s rapid economic ascent is unparalleled—surpassing the U.S. in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)—while the U.S. maintains a "DNA to be Number One".

: The rising power often views its growth as benign and grows more entitled, while the ruling power sees this as ungrateful and fears losing its edge. Why the US-China Case is "Grim" Destined for War: Can America and China Escape ...

The "trap" refers to the dangerous structural stress that occurs when a (China) threatens to displace a ruling power (the United States). : The rising power often views its growth

: Allison’s team identified 16 cases over the last 500 years where a rising power challenged a ruling one; 12 of these resulted in war . : Named after the ancient Greek historian Thucydides,

: Named after the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who observed that the Peloponnesian War was caused by "the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta".

In his influential 2017 book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? , Harvard scholar Graham Allison warns that the United States and China are on a collision course. While he stresses that , he argues that historical structural forces make it much more likely than most leaders acknowledge. The Core Concept: Thucydides’s Trap